Selectpath Warns Generics May Not Cut Canadian GLP-1 Plan Spend

Canadian benefits advisory firm Selectpath is warning plan sponsors that the arrival of generic semaglutide may not reduce total drug plan spending, even though per-prescription costs are expected to fall, because lower prices are likely to unleash significantly higher utilization across an already large eligible population [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/].

The cost pressure already on the books

Selectpath cites Canadian Institute for Health Information data showing public drug plan spending on Ozempic reached $662 million in 2023, up from $434 million the year before, with GLP-1 drugs accounting for roughly 25% of the entire growth in public drug plan spending [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/]. On the private side, semaglutide held the top spot for private drug plan spend in both 2023 and 2024, citing Express Scripts Canada's 2025 Drug Trend Report [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/].

Why generics may not solve the problem

The advisory firm notes that data exclusivity on semaglutide expired on January 4, 2026, and Health Canada has received nine applications for generic semaglutide from multiple manufacturers [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/]. Selectpath references analyst projections that generic semaglutide could be priced as low as 35% of the current branded cost [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/].

However, the firm argues today's branded prices act as a natural brake on demand, and when that brake lifts, the question is not whether utilization increases but how much and how quickly [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/].

The eligible population is large and growing

Selectpath points to Statistics Canada's Canadian Health Measures Survey showing more than two-thirds of adults aged 18 to 79 now classify as overweight or having obesity, up from 60% before the pandemic, with the obesity rate alone rising from 25% to 33% over that period [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/]. The firm notes obesity rates have climbed fastest among working-age adults aged 18 to 39 — the demographic most heavily represented on employer plans [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/].

Expanded indications widen the door

The advisory also flags that Wegovy gained an expanded indication in late 2024 for reducing the risk of nonfatal heart attack in overweight adults with established cardiovascular disease, and that Health Canada issued a regulatory decision for Wegovy on December 10, 2025 for a serious liver condition known as MASH [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/]. Selectpath argues every new approval increases the number of people who qualify under plan criteria.

Insurer perspective

The Selectpath analysis aligns with commentary from Frédéric Leblanc, a pharmacist at iA Financial, who said insurers are "preparing for everything we need to do so that everybody benefits from a lower price, both in diabetes and eventually in weight management" [Source: endorhealth.com/article/generic-ozempic-coming-to-canada].

Selectpath recommends that plan sponsors take a fresh look at coverage criteria, examine existing prior authorization rules, and consider mandatory generic substitution policies before utilization climbs further [Source: selectpath.ca/blogs-vlogs/cheaper-ozempic-is-coming-to-canada-dont-celebrate-yet/].

Regulatory backdrop

Health Canada has confirmed it is reviewing nine submissions for generic versions of semaglutide [Source: cbc.ca/news/health/ozempic-glp1-health-canada-generic-9.7034498]. Mark Johnson, a Health Canada spokesperson, said evaluating generic semaglutide is more complex than many other medication approvals because semaglutide was originally developed using biological processes while generic versions can be made using simpler chemical means [Source: cbc.ca/news/health/ozempic-glp1-health-canada-generic-9.7034498].

Mina Tadrous, an associate professor at the Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy at the University of Toronto, said he doesn't expect cheaper versions immediately, suggesting summer would be more likely for approvals [Source: cbc.ca/news/health/ozempic-glp1-health-canada-generic-9.7034498].

Current pharmacy pricing

For readers tracking the per-unit side of the equation, GLP1Prices.ca data shows current Canadian pharmacy prices for branded semaglutide products ranging from $222 to $663 for Ozempic, $270 to $490 for Wegovy, and $230 to $293.99 for Rybelsus. Tirzepatide products, which Selectpath notes are not affected by the semaglutide exclusivity expiry, range from $283.08 to $813 for Mounjaro and $276 to $609 for Zepbound.

Readers can monitor approval status on the generic semaglutide tracker or review the insurance coverage checker for plan-specific guidance.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice.