Novo Nordisk Guides 5-13% Revenue Drop as Canada Generics Bite

Novo Nordisk has told investors that group revenues will fall between 5% and 13% in 2026, ending years of double-digit growth, as Canadian generic semaglutide reaches pharmacy shelves and the Danish manufacturer rolls out a national savings card to defend its brand.

The 2026 guidance

Chief executive Mike Doustdar described the outlook as reflecting "a year of unprecedented pricing pressure" after full-year 2025 sales grew 10% to 309 billion Danish kroner and profit before tax rose 3% to 130.5 billion kroner. Novo Nordisk's share price fell 17% on the day of the guidance and has lost nearly 50% of its value over the past year.

The company cited three pressures: a U.S. pricing agreement with the Trump administration that cut list prices from more than US$1,000 a month to an average of US$350, patent expiry of semaglutide in several countries including India, and competition from compounded versions. Semaglutide patent protection remains in force in Europe and Japan until 2033 and in the United States until 2032.

Canada moves first among G7

Canada became only the second country in the world to authorize a generic form of semaglutide after Novo Nordisk did not pay a C$250 annual government fee, opening the door to Health Canada approvals for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Apotex, with seven other applications still under review. Dr. Reddy's product became available on May 15, 2026, while Apotex began shipping its version, with the Canadian company saying its Ozempic generic would be priced at approximately one-third of the brand.

CBC News reported that generic semaglutide arrived at select Rexall and Shoppers Drug Mart locations, with pharmacies quoting roughly $100 a month. Southwestern Ontario pharmacist Tim Brady told CBC that as more generics enter, prices could fall to as low as $75 a month. Current pharmacy prices tracked on GLP1Prices.ca for brand Ozempic still range from $86.40 to $663 per fill across 82 samples, reflecting how unevenly generic pricing is flowing through the retail channel.

Novo Nordisk's Canadian counter-move

Starting the Friday after the generic launch, eligible Canadians without public or private coverage can buy brand Ozempic at a reduced rate via a Novo Nordisk Savings Card, which is accepted at pharmacies across Canada excluding Quebec and applied automatically at Novo Nordisk Care Rx operated by Rexall. Iain Graham, general manager at Novo Nordisk Canada, said the program is designed so eligible patients "can stay on the brand because of these additional savings".

The Canadian rollout runs in parallel with Novo Nordisk's U.S. pill launch. The oral Wegovy tablet reached 50,000 U.S. prescriptions a week by late January and is priced between US$149 and US$299 a month for cash payers depending on dose, with Amazon's pharmacy arm selling it at US$25 for insured customers and US$149 for cash payers.

Competitive backdrop

Eli Lilly, maker of Mounjaro and Zepbound, forecast 2026 sales of US$80 billion to US$83 billion, up from US$65 billion in 2025 -- a 45% projected increase -- and shares rose 9.5% by lunchtime U.S. time on its update. Lilly plans to cap higher doses of its own oral GLP-1 at US$399 a month for repeat cash buyers, subject to regulatory approval.

Canadians tracking real-world pharmacy costs can check the generic semaglutide tracker, review plan rules through the insurance coverage checker, or read background on Rybelsus and program eligibility in the FAQ.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice.

Sources

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